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Predicted 10-Year Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease at the State Level in the U.S.

Published:November 09, 2014DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2014.09.014

      Background

      Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the U.S. State-specific predicted 10-year risk of developing CVD could provide useful information for state health planning and policy.

      Purpose

      To estimate state-specific 10-year risk of developing CVD.

      Methods

      Using the updated non–laboratory-based Framingham CVD Risk Score (RS), this study estimated 10-year risk of developing CVD; coronary heart disease (CHD); and stroke, stratified by demographic factors and by state among 2009 Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System participants aged 30–74 years. Data analysis was completed in June 2014.

      Results

      The age-standardized mean CVD, CHD, and stroke RSs for adults aged 30–74 years were 14.6%, 10.4%, and 2.3% among men, respectively, and 7.5%, 4.5%, and 1.8% among women. RSs increased significantly with age and were highest among non-Hispanic blacks, those with less than high school education, and households with incomes <$35,000. State-specific age-standardized CVD, CHD, and stroke RS ranged, among men, from lows in Utah (13.2%, 9.6%, and 2.1%, respectively) to highs in Louisiana (16.2%, 11.7%, and 2.6%), and among women, from lows in Minnesota (6.3%, 3.8%, and 1.5%) to highs in Mississippi (8.7%, 5.3%, and 2.1%).

      Conclusions

      The predicted 10-year risk of developing CVD varies significantly by age, gender, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, household income, and state of residence. These results support the development and implementation of targeted prevention programs by states to address the risk of developing CVD, CHD, and stroke among their populations.
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