Introduction
This study estimates the health, economic, and budgetary impact resulting from graduated
sodium reductions in the commercially produced food supply of the U.S., which are
consistent with draft U.S. Food and Drug Administration voluntary guidance and correspond
to Healthy People 2020 objectives and the 2015–2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans.
Methods
Reduction in mean U.S. dietary sodium consumption to 2,300 mg/day was implemented
in a microsimulation model designed to evaluate prospective cardiovascular disease–related
policies in the U.S. population. The analysis was conducted in 2018–2020, and the
microsimulation model was constructed using various data sources from 1948 to 2018.
Modeled outcomes over 10 years included prevalence of systolic blood pressure ≥140
mmHg; incident myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular disease events, and cardiovascular
disease–related mortality; averted medical costs by payer in 2017 U.S. dollars; and
productivity.
Results
Reducing sodium consumption is expected to reduce the number of people with systolic
blood pressure ≥140 mmHg by about 22% and prevent approximately 895.2 thousand cardiovascular
disease events (including 218.9 thousand myocardial infarctions and 284.5 thousand
strokes) and 252.5 thousand cardiovascular disease–related deaths over 10 years in
the U.S. Savings from averted disease costs are expected to total almost $37 billion—most
of which would be attributed to Medicare ($18.4 billion) and private insurers ($13.4
billion)—and increased productivity from reduced disease burden and premature mortality
would account for another $18.2 billion in gains.
Conclusions
Systemic sodium reductions in the U.S. food supply can be expected to produce substantial
health and economic benefits over a 10-year period, particularly for Medicare and
private insurers.
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: June 09, 2020
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© 2020 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of American Journal of Preventive Medicine.
