Introduction
Evidence suggests real-world beverage taxes reduce sweetened beverage purchases, but
it is unknown if consumers consequently increase food or alcohol purchases. This study
examines whether Philadelphia's 1.5 cents/ounce beverage tax was associated with substitution
to 3 kinds of hypothesized substitutes: snacks, nontaxed beverage concentrates, and
alcohol.
Methods
Using commercial retail sales data and a difference-in-differences approach, analyses
compared logged volume and dollar sales of snacks and beverage concentrates between
2016 (pretax) and 2017 (post-tax) at chain food retail stores in Philadelphia (n=180) and Baltimore (nontaxed control city; n=60), and logged volume and dollar sales of wine and spirits at liquor stores in Philadelphia
(n=44) and nearby Pennsylvania counties (alternate control; n=66). Additional food analyses examined change in logged volume sales of hypothesized
products compared to control products (other foods). Analyses were conducted in 2020.
Results
Across store types, analyses showed no statistically significant increases in logged
volume or dollar sales of snacks or spirits in Philadelphia stores compared to control
sites (decreased, ranging from −10% to 0%). Supermarket analyses showed substitution
to nontaxed beverage concentrates (27% increase in volume, 36% increase relative to
other food) but remained a relatively small percentage of overall beverage dollar
sales (12% at baseline, 15% at post).
Conclusions
At the population level, there is no evidence that Philadelphia's decline in taxed
beverage purchases is offset by increases in snacks or spirits purchasing, but there
is evidence of substitution to beverage concentrates in supermarkets. Future studies
should explore individual-level purchasing changes.
To read this article in full you will need to make a payment
Purchase one-time access:
Academic & Personal: 24 hour online accessCorporate R&D Professionals: 24 hour online accessOne-time access price info
- For academic or personal research use, select 'Academic and Personal'
- For corporate R&D use, select 'Corporate R&D Professionals'
Subscribe:
Subscribe to American Journal of Preventive MedicineAlready a print subscriber? Claim online access
Already an online subscriber? Sign in
Register: Create an account
Institutional Access: Sign in to ScienceDirect
REFERENCES
- Resolved: there is sufficient scientific evidence that decreasing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption will reduce the prevalence of obesity and obesity-related diseases.Obes Rev. 2013; 14: 606-619
- Consumption of specific foods and beverages and excess weight gain among children and adolescents.Health Aff (Millwood). 2015; 34: 1940-1948
- Sugar-sweetened beverages and BMI in children and adolescents: reanalyses of a meta-analysis.Am J Clin Nutr. 2009; 89 (; author reply 439): 438-439
- Relation between consumption of sugar-sweetened drinks and childhood obesity: a prospective, observational analysis.Lancet. 2001; 357: 505-508
- A randomized trial of sugar-sweetened beverages and adolescent body weight.N Engl J Med. 2012; 367: 1407-1416
- Changes in prices, sales, consumer spending, and beverage consumption one year after a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Berkeley, California, US: a before-and-after study.PLOS Med. 2017; 14e1002283
- Higher retail prices of sugar-sweetened beverages 3 months after implementation of an excise tax in Berkeley, California.Am J Public Health. 2015; 105: 2194-2201
- Oakland's sugar-sweetened beverage tax: impacts on prices, purchases and consumption by adults and children.Econ Hum Biol. 2020; 37: 100865
- The impact of the Philadelphia beverage tax on prices and product availability.J Pol Anal Manage. 2020; 39: 605-628
- Association of a beverage tax on sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened beverages with changes in beverage prices and sales at chain retailers in a large urban setting.JAMA. 2019; 321: 1799-1810
- Local excise taxes, sticky prices, and spillovers: evidence from Berkeley's soda tax.SSRN Journal. 2018;
- Changes in prices after an excise tax to sweetened sugar beverages was implemented in Mexico: evidence from urban areas.PLOS ONE. 2015; 10e0144408
- The Pass-Through of the Largest Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: the Case of Boulder, Colorado. NBER Work Pap Ser. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.2018: 250250
- Do taxes for soda and sugary drinks work? Scanner data evidence from Berkeley and Washington.SSRN Journal. 2017;
- In Mexico, evidence of sustained consumer response two years after implementing a sugar-sweetened beverage tax.Health Aff (Millwood). 2017; 36: 564-571
- The impact of the Philadelphia beverage tax on purchases and consumption by adults and children.J Health Econ. 2019; 67102225
- The Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Purchases: Evidence From Four City-Level Taxes in the U.S. NBER Work Pap Ser. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research;.2019: 26393
- Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption 3 years after the Berkeley, California, sugar-sweetened beverage tax.Am J Public Health. 2019; 109: 637-639
- The short-term impacts of the Philadelphia beverage tax on beverage consumption.Am J Prev Med. 2018; 55: 26-34
- Recent trends in junk food intake in U.S. children and adolescents, 2003–2016.Am J Prev Med. 2020; 59: 49-58
Compare Tax policies. Healthy food America. http://www.healthyfoodamerica.org/compare_tax_policies. Accessed May 20, 2020.
- Effect of increasing the price of sugar-sweetened beverages on alcoholic beverage purchases: an economic analysis of sales data.J Epidemiol Community Health. 2018; 72: 324-330
- Implications of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax when substitutions to non-beverage items are considered.J Health Econ. 2013; 32: 219-239
- Regressive sin taxes, with an application to the optimal soda tax.Q J Econ. 2019; 134: 1557-1626
- Price elasticity of the demand for sugar sweetened beverages and soft drinks in Mexico.Econ Hum Biol. 2015; 19: 129-137
- Predicting the effects of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on food and beverage demand in a large demand system.Am J Agric Econ. 2014; 96: 1-25
- Effects of a price increase on purchases of sugar sweetened beverages. Results from a randomized controlled trial.Appetite. 2014; 78: 32-39
U.S. Census Bureau. QuickFacts. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/philadelphiacountypennsylvania. Published 2017. Accessed February 15, 2019.
- Pooling cross sections across time: simple panel data methods.in: Wooldridge JM Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Nelson Education, 2016: 448‒483
- Cost effectiveness of a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax in the U.S.Am J Prev Med. 2015; 49: 112-123
- A penny-per-ounce tax on sugar-sweetened beverages would cut health and cost burdens of diabetes.Health Aff (Millwood). 2012; 31: 199-207
Article Info
Publication History
Published online: December 19, 2020
Identification
Copyright
© 2020 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
